《能源化工》日报-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose, driven by geopolitical events and trade progress, but fundamental factors restricted the increase. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, and the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted some demand expectations. However, OPEC+ planned production increases were digested, Saudi exports increased, US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, and gasoline demand was weak. The oil price broke through the previous trading range but lacked strong drivers, with a low probability of short - term unilateral trends. It is recommended to wait and see, with resistance levels for WTI at [67, 68], Brent at [69, 70], and SC at [510, 520]. Options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply - demand is tight in the short term due to maintenance expectations, high downstream loads, and new PTA production plans. However, as PXN recovers, some maintenance may be postponed, and weak terminal demand may limit the rebound space. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with PX09 oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [6]. - PTA: In July, the maintenance of PTA devices is average, and new devices are stable. With expected downstream production cuts and weak terminal demand, supply - demand is turning loose. Although the low price is supported by raw materials, the absolute price is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, with a short - position allocation at the upper edge of the range and a rolling reverse spread for TA9 - 1 [6]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is increasing at home and abroad, and the supply - demand is gradually turning loose, with a possible inventory build - up from August to September. Domestic coal - based MEG plants are restarting, and overseas plants are also recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the seller of option EG2509 - C - 4450 exiting and a reverse spread for EG9 - 1 at high prices [6]. - Short Fibre: The supply - demand is weak. Although short - term prices are supported by raw materials due to expected production cuts and limited inventory pressure, weak downstream demand restricts the repair space of processing fees. PF is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, and the processing fees can be expanded at low levels [6]. - Bottle Chips: In July, due to the peak consumption season and production cuts by some plants, the supply - demand is expected to improve, and the processing fees are bottoming out. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is similar to PTA in unilateral trading, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 at low prices and attention to expanding processing fees at the lower edge of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Urea The increase in urea futures prices is mainly driven by improved demand expectations, including seasonal agricultural demand, marginal improvement in industrial demand, and positive market sentiment from export tenders. Although supply - side device maintenance provides some support, overall supply growth restricts the upside. The supply - demand may further improve, and the short - term price may have upward potential depending on the tender results [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - side optimization expectation boosts market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits lead to high production, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. The price may rebound at a low level under strong macro sentiment, but the momentum depends on spot market follow - up [38]. - PVC: The supply - side optimization policy is beneficial in the long - term, but short - term supply - demand contradictions are still prominent. The real - estate demand is dragging, and overseas factors may affect exports. PVC has a fundamental basis for a rebound, but the near - term upside is limited, and the long - term effect depends on policy implementation [38]. Methanol Port inventory build - up, Iranian plant restarts, and MTO device shutdowns increase the pressure on port prices, and the port basis weakens rapidly. The inland market is affected by high production and weak demand in the off - season, but more maintenance plans in July will relieve some supply pressure. Overall, the price has limited upside and downside, and interval operations are recommended [41]. Styrene The pure benzene market first declined and then rebounded at a low level. The styrene market in East China was stable, with a strong basis price as the paper - cargo delivery approached. In the medium term, tariffs and subsidies may not drive terminal demand further. High styrene profits stimulate production, and supply - demand pressure may lead to valuation repair, which may rely on a decline in styrene prices. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene due to raw material resonance [51]. Polyolefins Cost - end valuation has recovered, but monomer prices are firm, squeezing the profit of the monomer - purchasing process. The supply of PP and PE is shrinking, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. Although the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, there is still overall pressure. In the short - term, support from de - stocking can be noted, and for PP, short positions can be considered when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: On July 3, Brent rose 2.00 to 69.11 dollars/barrel, WTI fell 0.19 to 67.26 dollars/barrel, and SC rose 10.50 to 509.00 yuan/barrel. Most spreads changed, with Brent - WTI increasing by 0.19 to 1.85 dollars/barrel [2]. - Refined Oil: NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD declined slightly, while ICE Gasoil rose 15.25 to 741.50 dollars/ton. The cracking spreads of some refined oils changed, with the US gasoline cracking spread falling 0.08 to 21.63 dollars/barrel [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Polyester Products: On July 2, POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other prices mostly declined, while short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices changed slightly [6]. - PX - related: CFR China PX declined, and PX - related spreads also changed, such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha [6]. - PTA - related: PTA prices and spreads changed, with the spot price falling and the basis weakening. The processing fees also decreased [6]. - MEG - related: MEG prices, inventory, and开工率 changed. The inventory decreased, and the开工 rate of some plants changed [6]. Urea - Futures and Spot: On July 2, futures prices rose, and spot prices in some regions changed slightly. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [10][11][14]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily production decreased, and the plant start - up rate decreased. The inventory in some areas decreased, and the number of enterprise orders decreased [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures: On July 2, the prices of caustic soda and PVC spot and futures changed. For example, the price of SH2509 rose 33.0 to 2391.0 yuan/ton [33]. - Supply and Demand: The opening rates of caustic soda and PVC plants changed, and the inventory of some products changed. The downstream opening rates of caustic soda and PVC also had corresponding changes [36][37][38]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: On July 2, MA2509 and MA2601 prices rose, and the basis and regional spreads changed. For example, the太仓 basis fell 95 to 61 [41]. - Inventory and开工率: Methanol inventory increased slightly, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream plants changed. The upstream enterprise start - up rate increased, while the downstream MTO device start - up rate decreased [41]. Styrene - Upstream: On July 2, the prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw materials changed. The pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha spreads also changed [49]. - Spot and Futures: The styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and month - spreads decreased [49]. - Industry Chain: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed. For example, the styrene start - up rate increased, and the integrated profit increased significantly [51]. Polyolefins - Futures and Spot: On July 2, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices rose, and the basis and month - spreads changed. The spot prices of some products also changed [55]. - Supply and Demand: The开工率 of PE and PP plants changed, and the inventory decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP also changed [55].