摩根大通：中国风电-随风而行-运用人工智能识别风电股投资机会：6 月发电量增长提速得益于稳定风速

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on China Longyuan Power (916 HK) with a price target of HK$7.20 [28][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected ~19% growth in Longyuan's wind power generation for June 2025, driven by improved wind speeds, which is significantly higher than the ~10% organic capacity growth expected for FY24 [4][6][29]. - The analysis employs machine learning techniques to predict monthly power generation, achieving an average accuracy of ~95% [19][28]. - The report identifies trading opportunities based on the variance between predicted generation growth and trailing capacity growth, suggesting a long-short strategy could yield an average annual return of ~8.5% from 2019 to 2024 [4][15][19]. Summary by Sections Wind Power Generation Forecast - Longyuan's wind power generation for June 2025 is estimated at ~5.0 billion kWh, reflecting a ~19% year-over-year growth [6][24]. - The report notes that monthly wind speed volatility significantly impacts generation and share price performance, with historical monthly growth ranging from -19.4% to +28.6% [9][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that investors can utilize predictions to assess the likelihood of irregular events in monthly generation releases, recommending a trading strategy based on deviations greater than 5% from trailing capacity growth [15][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of accurate power generation forecasts for trading opportunities ahead of generation statistic releases [14][19]. Company Analysis - Longyuan is recognized as the largest and most established wind farm operator in China, with a total consolidated wind installed capacity of 27.8 GW as of the end of 2023 [29][30]. - The report indicates a positive outlook for Longyuan due to secular capacity growth driven by China's carbon-neutrality goals and an increasing mix of grid-parity projects [28][29]. Valuation - The price target of HK$7.20 is based on a target P/BV of 0.75x, reflecting Longyuan's lower gearing compared to Datang RE [30][31].