花旗：北美2025 年下半年前行之路展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on US equities with a base case S&P 500 target of 6300, indicating a bullish outlook for the second half of 2025 [8][16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while the S&P 500 has faced various geopolitical and economic challenges, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, supporting a bullish stance on growth sectors, particularly Information Technology and Communication Services [8][16]. - Structural growth drivers are highlighted as key differentiators in stock selection, with a focus on companies that can efficiently translate top-line growth into earnings amidst ongoing consumer and policy uncertainties [35][25]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely resume rate cuts in September, with a terminal rate projected between 3.0-3.25% by March 2026, which is expected to support growth sectors [54][53]. Summary by Sections Strategy - The report outlines a thematic approach focusing on operating leverage and structural trends that can drive earnings growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties [26][35]. - Analysts express a cautious optimism regarding the financial sector, with specific recommendations for banks and payment processors based on discounted valuations and transformational phases [67]. Equities - The report identifies a persistent but volatile bull market, with expectations for continued growth in the S&P 500 driven by strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, particularly in growth sectors [16][25]. - The report projects that the S&P 500 EPS outlook remains healthy, with a target refresh indicating a potential rise to 6500 by mid-2026 [16][11]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight position in growth sectors such as Communication Services and Information Technology, while being cautious on Consumer Discretionary and Materials [15][35]. - Specific stock recommendations include Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, which are expected to benefit from trends in Artificial Intelligence and Digital Leisure [36]. Economic Outlook - The global economic growth forecast is set at 2.5% for 2025, with tariffs expected to weigh on activity, leading to a cautious outlook for the second half of the year [43][38]. - Inflation is anticipated to diverge, with the US likely experiencing higher goods inflation due to tariffs, while other regions may see lower inflation rates [43][53]. Commodities - The report is bearish on oil prices, expecting them to decline to $60-65 per barrel by year-end, while gold prices are projected to fall significantly after a peak in 2025 [56][54]. - Aluminium is highlighted as a strong long-term investment opportunity due to its leverage to global growth and limited supply growth [56].