花旗：全球经济_关税正带来挑战

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global trade due to the impact of tariffs, suggesting potential challenges for investment in related sectors [1]. Core Insights - The momentum in global trade driven by US frontloading has diminished, with a significant decline in US imports observed since March, particularly in pharmaceutical imports from Europe [1] - Approximately 70% of major economies have PMIs for new export orders below 50, indicating contraction in new export orders since April [1] - The restraining effects of tariffs on trade are becoming increasingly evident, with further impacts likely to materialize in the future [1] Summary by Sections Global Trade Dynamics - US imports through May have sharply retreated from their March highs, with pharmaceutical imports from Europe showing a marked decline [1] - New export orders for countries outside the US have contracted since April, reflecting a broader slowdown in global trade activity [1] Economic Indicators - The PMI for new export orders in June was reported at 48.9 for the global economy excluding the US, indicating a contraction [5] - The US PMI for new export orders was slightly better at 51.0, suggesting a marginal expansion compared to the global average [9] Trade Order Trends - The divergence between exports and imports is highlighted, with global imports rising significantly due to increased precious metal imports to the US, which are not reflected in export figures [54][55]