大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - PTA: After the sharp decline in oil prices, the PTA futures market has returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures price follows the cost - end fluctuations. Although the PTA's own fundamentals have weakened on a month - on - month basis, there is no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost end, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in polyester load [6]. - MEG: At the beginning of July, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign - sourced goods, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The domestic and foreign supply is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand balance of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall accumulation of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the polyester production and sales have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has been increasing. Bottle - chip factories will gradually implement maintenance, and the polyester load will decline. Although the short - term market sentiment will be driven by the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants, the overall upward trend is not sustainable, and the fundamentals cannot provide effective support [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review The content does not provide a specific review of the previous day. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: The PTA futures closed down in a volatile manner yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved compared to the previous day. The spot basis stabilized after a decline, and a small number of polyester factories made inquiries. There were transactions at 09 + 145 - 150 this week and next week, with individual transactions slightly lower at 09 + 140, and the price negotiation range was around 4,900 - 4,950. Transactions at 09 + 135 - 140 were made for mid - to - late July, and around 09 + 130 - 138 for late July. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 147, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,920, the basis of the 09 contract is 126, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Main Position: The net position is short, and it has changed from long to short, which is a bearish factor [6]. - Expectation: After the sharp decline in oil prices, the PTA futures market has returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures price follows the cost - end fluctuations. Although the PTA's own fundamentals have weakened on a month - on - month basis, there is no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost end, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in polyester load [6]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded, but the market negotiation was somewhat stalemate. In the night session, ethylene glycol opened higher and then declined, and the basis moderately declined. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated upward, and in the afternoon, the spot price reached a high of around 4,390 yuan/ton, but the buying interest was average. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream transaction was at a premium of 70 - 73 yuan/ton to the 09 contract [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,360, the basis of the 09 contract is 61, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish factor [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [8]. - Main Position: The main net position is short, and the short position has decreased, which is a bearish factor [7]. - Expectation: At the beginning of July, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign - sourced goods, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The domestic and foreign supply is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand balance of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall accumulation of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the polyester production and sales have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has been increasing. Bottle - chip factories will gradually implement maintenance, and the polyester load will decline. Although the short - term market sentiment will be driven by the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants, the overall upward trend is not sustainable, and the fundamentals cannot provide effective support [7]. 3.3 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [9]. - Negative Factors: Iran has confirmed a cease - fire. From the demand side, it is the end of the rush - to - export period and the off - season for domestic demand, and the downward trend of terminal demand is certain. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost end, and after the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10][11]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol over time [13]. 3.5 Price and Profit Data - Spot and Futures Prices: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as the basis and price differences of PTA and MEG futures contracts on July 2 and July 1, 2025 [14]. - Profit Data: It shows the processing fees and production profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester products, including PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different raw materials, and the production profits of polyester fibers [14]. 3.6 Other Data Charts - Bottle - Chip Data: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory data of PET bottle - chips [15][18][22][23]. - Spread and Basis Data: It shows the price differences between different PTA and MEG futures contracts, the basis of PTA and MEG, and the spot price difference between PTA and MEG [25][28][31][35][38]. - Inventory Data: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers [41][43][51]. - Operating Rate Data: It includes the operating rates of the upstream and downstream industries of the polyester industry chain, such as PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms [52][56]. - Profit Data: It shows the production profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers [60][63][66].