大越期货螺卷早报-20250703

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Spiral Steel and Hot - Rolled Steel Morning Report (2025 - 7 - 3) [1] - Author: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: Phone 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For Threaded Steel (Rebar): Consider a volatile and slightly bullish approach. Demand is seasonally rising, inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, but traders' purchasing willingness is still weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. The basis is positive, inventory is decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line rising, but the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. The real - estate market remains weak, future demand may cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market [2]. - For Hot - Rolled Coil: Consider a volatile and slightly bullish approach. Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may come into play. The basis is positive, inventory is decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line rising, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Market supply and demand are weakening, exports are blocked, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market [6]. Group 4: Factors Affecting the Market For Threaded Steel - Likely Positive Factors: Low production and inventory levels, and the spot price is at a premium [3] - Likely Negative Factors: The downstream real - estate industry is in a continuous downward cycle, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3] For Hot - Rolled Coil - Likely Positive Factors: Fair demand, and the spot price is at a premium [8] - Likely Negative Factors: Downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9] Group 5: Market Data Price Data - Threaded Steel Spot Price: 3130 yuan, basis 65 [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil Spot Price: 3200 yuan, basis 9 [6] - Other Prices: Including prices of rebar in Southeast Asia, hot - rolled coil in Southeast Asia, Tangshan billet, domestic scrap steel, etc. [16][19][23] Inventory Data - Threaded Steel Inventory: 363.4 million tons in 35 major cities nationwide, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory: 262.94 million tons in 33 major cities nationwide, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [6] Production and Consumption Data - Production: Data on weekly production of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil are presented [35][38] - Consumption: Data on apparent consumption, apparent consumption year - on - year, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil are provided [66][71][69] Other Related Data - Construction material trading volume, real - estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, cement price, etc. [77][80][84]