大越期货玻璃早报-20250703

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Policy benefits boost the market sentiment, but the fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. Section Summaries Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis shows that the production profit of glass is at a low level, the cold - repair of the industry increases, the start - up rate and output drop to the historical low, the deep - processing orders are weaker than the same period in previous years, and the factory inventory continues to accumulate, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is 4 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot, which is neutral [2]. - The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. Influencing Factors - Likely factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continuously declined to a historical low. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to implement a production - cut plan, which boosts the market sentiment [3]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real - estate sector is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4]. Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. It is the seasonal off - peak season for demand, and downstream enterprises purchase as needed. The factory inventory of glass continues to accumulate. Therefore, glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 980 yuan/ton to 1052 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.35% [6]. - The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass increased from 1052 yuan/ton to 1056 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.38% [6]. - The main basis decreased from 72 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 94.44% [6]. Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1056 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost side: Negative feedback of production profit leads to a decrease in glass output [3]. - Production and capacity: The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 222, with an operating rate of 75.15%. The daily melting capacity is 156,800 tons, both at historical lows for the same period [21][23]. - Demand: In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [27]. - Inventory: The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [42]. - Supply - demand balance: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance table of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in production, consumption, and other indicators over the years [43].