大越期货沥青期货早报-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The overall supply pressure is increasing [8]. - From the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - From the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,539 - 3,603 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased, raising the supply pressure. Next week, the supply pressure may further increase [8]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port inventory are all decreasing continuously [11]. - Expectation: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,539 - 3,603 [10]. - Likely positives: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [13]. - Likely negatives: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [14]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts and related indicators, including price changes, inventory changes, production volume changes, etc. For example, the 01 contract price increased by 0.21%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: Shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: Compares the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25][26]. - Crude oil cracking spread: Displays the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: Shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - Displays the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the asphalt spot market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - Supply - side analysis: - Shipment volume: Displays the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: Displays the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - Production volume: Displays the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: Displays the historical trends of the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2020 to 2025 [53][55]. - Local refinery asphalt production: Displays the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - 开工率: Displays the historical trends of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - Maintenance loss estimate: Displays the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - Inventory analysis: - Exchange warehouse receipts: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - Social inventory and factory inventory: Displays the historical trends of asphalt social inventory and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - Factory inventory - inventory ratio: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - Import and Export Analysis: Displays the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [74][75][78]. - Demand - side analysis: - Petroleum coke production: Displays the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - Apparent consumption: Displays the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: Displays the historical data from 2019 to 2025 [87][88]. - Downstream machinery demand: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - Asphalt开工率: Displays the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, construction asphalt开工率, and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 [95][96][98]. - Downstream开工情况: Displays the historical trends of the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].