大越期货菜粕早报-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 will fluctuate in the range of 2560 - 2620. It is currently affected by factors such as low rapeseed oil mill operation, low rapeseed meal inventory, short - term peak season of spot demand, increased imports of rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short term, it will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, but the upward space may be limited [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No specific content provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with a tight supply and increasing demand in the spot market [11]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with uncertain results [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish - China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes [12]. - The rapeseed meal inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant [12]. Bearish - Domestic rapeseed was listed in June [13]. - The result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season [13]. Current Main Logic The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data Price Data - From June 23 to July 2, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2500 - 2600 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2886 - 2966 yuan. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was in the range of 358 - 416 yuan [14]. - From June 24 to July 2, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509) fluctuated between 2550 - 2662 yuan, the price of the far - month contract 2601 fluctuated between 2290 - 2374 yuan, and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2500 - 2600 yuan [16]. Inventory Data - As of July 2, the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 million tons, an 8.91% increase from last week's 1.01 million tons and a 65.63% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - From June 19 to July 2, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 25844 to 20149 [17]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2014 to 2023 [25]. - The domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2014 to 2023 [26]. 5. Position Data No specific content provided in the given text related to position data analysis. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies Analysis of Influencing Factors - Fundamental aspect: The upward movement of rapeseed meal is driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. Low oil mill operation and low inventory support the price. The short - term peak season of spot demand and increased imports of rapeseed have no short - term pressure on oil mill inventory. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is bullish, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the bullish effect [9]. - Basis aspect: The spot price is 2500 yuan, and the basis is - 78, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory aspect: The increase in rapeseed meal inventory week - on - week is bearish, but the significant decrease compared to the same period last year is bullish [9]. - Disk aspect: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main position aspect: The decrease in main long positions and the inflow of funds are bullish [9]. Forecast Rapeseed meal is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. It may rise due to low rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but then fall back. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to a range - bound pattern [9].