瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate remains high, and the oversupply situation continues, with industry inventory pressure still existing. The demand side has some support from downstream rigid - demand orders, and the improvement of demand expectations has led to an upward shift in the trading center of the spot market. Overall, the oversupply of lithium carbonate will still bring pressure to the industry, and subsequent effective demand needs to be driven by actual consumption. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [2]. - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call position dominant, and the implied volatility has slightly increased [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,080 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 73,811 lots, down 19,600 lots; the position of the main contract is 334,057 lots, up 8,483 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 500 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 23,180 lots, up 240 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,100 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,980 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 694 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,632 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application - The prices of some materials such as manganese - acid lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, and ternary materials remain unchanged. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 171,280 lots, down 5,040 lots; the total put position is 98,254 lots, up 12,488 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions is 57.36%, up 8.7223 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.23%, up 0.0090 percentage points [2]. 2. Industry News - Tesla's global deliveries in Q2 decreased 13.5% year - on - year to 384,100 units, slightly lower than the analyst consensus of 389,400 units but better than the pessimistic prediction. Its June sales in China were 71,600 units, up 0.8% year - on - year [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June is 1.26 million units, up 29% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative wholesale from January to June is 6.47 million units, up 38% year - on - year [2]. - The used - car manager index in June is 42.3%, up 1.1 percentage points year - on - year and down 2.6 percentage points month - on - month, still in the non - prosperous range [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and innovation of the manufacturing industry in Hubei [2]. - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in June is 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business volume index has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months [2]. 3. Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are shrinking [2].