沪铜产业日报-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to operate in the negative range, the progress of the mid - year long - term contract negotiation exceeds expectations, the long - term TC has been repaired, and the tight supply situation of copper concentrate has improved. In terms of supply, due to the sufficient port inventory of copper mines and the opening of the copper export window, smelters still have a high production willingness, with stable and slightly increasing output. Although the supply is sufficient, the domestic supply has tightened due to the increasing export intention. In terms of demand, affected by the off - season, the processing and consumption of downstream copper products have weakened. The seasonal weakness of demand has led to low trading activity in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the social inventory remains basically stable and operates at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the supply expectation of copper mines has improved. In the options market, the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.6, a decrease of 0.0844 compared with the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 80,560 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,995 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 224,672 lots, up 1,550 lots. The long - short position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is 7,547 lots, up 2,459 lots. The LME copper inventory is 93,250 tons, up 2,000 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 31,900 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 24,103 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 80,980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 80,995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 96.2 dollars/ton, down 20.1 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars/kiloton. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 56,590 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235 million pieces, up 68 million pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.2%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.42%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 14.71%, down 0.0120; the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.6, down 0.0844. [2] 3.7 Industry News - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The business volume index has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months this year. The ADP employment in the US unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 in June, the first negative growth since March 2023. The market expected an increase of 98,000. After the downward revision of May data, it only increased by 29,000. The service industry lost 66,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June is 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. So far, the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. The Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, Zhang Guoqing, conducted research in Hubei, emphasizing technological empowerment, accelerating industrial innovation, and continuously promoting high - quality development of the manufacturing industry. Fed Chairman Powell said that it's hard to say whether a rate cut in July is too early, and no meeting is excluded. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there is no urgent need to change policies. [2]