瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures main - contract oscillated and declined, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals are in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand, with stable bauxite prices providing some cost support. Suggest light - position oscillating trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main - contract oscillated strongly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals are in a situation of relatively stable supply, short - term demand decline due to seasonality, and long - term positive expectations, with macro - sentiment dominating market changes. Suggest light - position short - selling on rallies [2]. - The cast aluminum main - contract oscillated strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Its fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Suggest light - position oscillating trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract was 20,680 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main - contract was 3,026 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,614.50 US dollars/ton, up 12.50 US dollars [2]. - The main - contract open interest of Shanghai aluminum was 281,092 lots, and that of alumina was 279,051 lots, up 3,556 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 8,625 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 356,625 tons, up 8,000 tons [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventory was 94,290 tons, down 10,194 tons; the alumina total inventory was 65,645 tons, down 24,650 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina was 54 yuan, up 45 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 2.97 US dollars/ton, down 2.21 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of alumina was 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the export quantity of alumina was 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons; the export quantity was 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.60 million tons, up 3.37 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The business volume index has been in the expansion zone for four consecutive months this year [2]. - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 people, the first negative growth since March 2023. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers in China in June was 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale was 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - important" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two - important" construction project list for this year has been fully released [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized accelerating industrial innovation and promoting high - quality development of the manufacturing industry during his research in Hubei [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said it's hard to say if a July rate cut is too early, and no meeting is excluded. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there is no urgency to change policies [2].