瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250703

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Fed rate - cut expectations and the repair of the gold - silver ratio drive up silver prices, and tariff uncertainties support gold prices [2]. - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data indicates a possible slowdown in non - farm employment growth, and the labor market remains resilient. Tonight's non - farm data is crucial for gold price trends. Higher - than - expected labor demand may boost wage growth and rate - cut expectations, thus lifting gold prices. Otherwise, the US dollar may strengthen and suppress gold prices [2]. - COMEX gold futures' net long positions in Q2 2025 hit a four - quarter low, and rising gold prices suppress speculative and physical demand for gold. However, in the long - term, US fiscal deficits and damaged dollar credit are positive for gold prices, and the dovish tone of Fed officials boosts silver's industrial properties, with the gold - silver ratio expected to converge [2]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a buy - on - dips strategy. For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8700 - 9000 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 781.28 yuan/gram, up 5.24 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8944 yuan/kilogram, up 197 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 175,461 lots, up 6,865 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 272,055 lots, up 23,032 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 141,322 lots, down 1,842 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 87,981 lots, down 3,833 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipts are 18,456 kilograms, unchanged; the silver warehouse receipts are 1,340,792 kilograms, up 2,133 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 774.59 yuan/gram, up 1.69 yuan; the silver spot price is 8815 yuan/kilogram, up 81 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.69 yuan/gram, down 3.55 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 129 yuan/kilogram, down 116 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, down 0.57 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 14,846.12 tons, down 22.89 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644 contracts; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.24%, up 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.85%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.75%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.76%, up 0.22% [2]. Industry News - The US assesses that Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, and the nuclear program is postponed by 1 - 2 years [2]. - Trump announces a trade agreement with Vietnam, with 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [2]. - The US House of Representatives advances Trump's tax - cut and spending bill [2]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 7.6%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 22.8% [2]. - The market expects 110,000 new non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, against an expected increase of 98,000 [2].