瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 3, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5390, up 0.41%. The market sentiment improved significantly after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission. The production was operating at a low level, and the cost of Ningxia semi - coke decreased. The production profit of ferroalloys was negative, and the overall expectation of steel demand was still weak. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 3, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5712, up 0.32%. After the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the market sentiment improved significantly. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' operating rate had rebounded for 6 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the inventory was still relatively high. The downstream hot metal production was operating at a high level. The steel mills' procurement was cautious, and the tender price continued to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5,712 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5,390 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 589,140 lots, up 9,004 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 405,479 lots, down 5,516 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 30,962 lots, up 2,120 lots; the net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy was - 46,142 lots, up 3,302 lots [2]. - The price difference between SM contracts from January to September was 40 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the price difference between SF contracts from January to September was - 8 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 89,598 pieces, up 1,753 pieces; SF warehouse receipts were 9,678 pieces, up 169 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,480 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The average value of the manganese silicon index was 5,490 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was - 110 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SM main contract was - 232 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 422.40 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises was 39.21%, up 2.82 percentage points; the operating rate of silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 31.70%, down 0.99 percentage points [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 179,235 tons, up 2,625 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply was 97,500 tons, down 400 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturers' inventory was 221,800 tons, up 15,900 tons; silicon ferroalloy manufacturers' inventory was 69,400 tons, up 1,400 tons [2]. - The inventory days of manganese silicon in national steel mills was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of silicon ferroalloy in national steel mills was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon in the five major steel types was 125,881 tons, up 2,164 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy in the five major steel types was 20,354.20 tons, up 389.80 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, up 0.526 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said on the 1st that he was considering raising tariffs on Japan to 30% or 35%, and the Japanese government had not responded directly [2]. - On July 2, the Iranian president approved the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency after the Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked by the US military [2]. - The World Meteorological Organization said that the hot weather in early summer brought life - threatening high temperatures to most parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and humans would face more frequent and severe high - temperature situations [2]. - The EU's foreign policy chief urged China to end restrictions on rare - earth exports and warned that Chinese enterprises' support for Russia in the Ukraine war posed a serious threat to European security [2].