瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample while demand contracts, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash starts to converge, and basis convergence trading may continue. The probability of a short - term halt in the price decline and a rebound for soda ash increases. It is recommended to go long on soda ash in the short - term and short the main contract in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - For glass, the supply decreases slightly, and the industry profit is poor with a downward trend. Demand is expected to weaken further. The basis remains within a normal range, and subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long on glass at low prices in the short - term and short in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1183 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1039 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1648012 lots, up 177559 lots; glass main contract position is 1524412 lots, up 22334 lots. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 279455, up 28480; glass top 20 net position is - 205464, up 145295. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3674 tons, down 5 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 802 tons, down 55 tons. Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 20, down 5; glass September - January contract spread is - 87, down 2. Soda ash basis is - 15 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; glass basis is 4 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. East China light soda ash is 1175 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1155 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. Shahe glass sheets are 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 82.21%, down 4.25 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.68 million tons/year, up 0.14 million tons; glass in - production line number is 222, down 1. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 176.88 million tons, up 0.19 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6921.6 million heavy boxes, down 67.1 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area is 18385.14 million square meters, up 2737.29 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Deputy Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized technological empowerment and industrial innovation in Hubei. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan project list for this year has been fully released. EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Wang Yi, and an important China - EU leaders' meeting is upcoming. The CSRC aims to prevent risks in bond defaults and private funds and optimize capital market mechanisms. In the first half of this year, 12.6 million new A - share accounts were opened, a year - on - year increase of 32.77% [2]. Macro - level and Market Analysis - Guided by the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on capacity reduction, both soda ash and glass prices rose significantly. For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production declined this week, supply is still ample, and profits have turned negative, indicating a further slowdown in production growth and a possible increase in cold repairs. For glass, one more production line was cold - repaired, and overall production decreased slightly. Photovoltaic glass demand is showing a downward trend [2].