Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term. Next week, as enterprises finish their maintenance and enter the production recovery stage, it will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,015 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 865 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,125 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 155,114 lots, down 1,571 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 36,726 lots, down 2,219 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 24,393 lots, down 8,086 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,003 lots, up 14 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 188,880 tons, down 270 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 28,023 tons, up 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,342 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 217 yuan/ton, up 152 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.88 Thai baht/kg, down 0.21 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 62.31 Thai baht/kg, down 0.69 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 48.15 days, up 0.73 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 17.34%, down 0.02 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 22.9%, up 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.84%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.83%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 29 to July 5, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping decreased slightly in the northern hemisphere and changed little in the southern hemisphere [2]. - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, up 14,800 tons or 2.40% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 80,700 tons, down 0.62%; the inventory in general trade was 551,400 tons, up 2.85% [2]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, up 4% from May and about 29% from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume was about 533,300 vehicles, up about 6% year - on - year [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250703
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-03 10:10