瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250703

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the I2509 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, due to the slow progress of trade negotiations between the US and Japan, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Japanese exports on Tuesday. In terms of supply - demand, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The rise in steel prices drove the rebound of iron ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising upwards. Overall, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, the domestic port inventory increased slightly; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and hot metal output of steel mills increased, and the demand support for iron ore still exists. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 733.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the position volume was 639,417 lots, down 8,458 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 26 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 39,580 lots, up 14,833 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I was 3,300 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 96.4 dollars/ton, up 1.25 dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 759 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 671 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 26 yuan, down 9 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 95.10 dollars/ton, up 1.95 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.58, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 784 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore leaving ports was 3,357.60 million tons, down 149.10 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.50 million tons, down 359.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 million tons, down 88.77 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,813.00 million tons, down 501.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.33 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 65.69%, up 2.14 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 53.36 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The BDI index was 1,443.00, down 15.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 18.93 dollars/ton, down 0.91 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 7.04 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 13.25%, up 0.57 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.89%, up 0.29 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.64%, up 2.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.07%, up 1.94 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,882.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 million tons. Mysteel's statistics showed that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 2,800.94 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 136.52 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 118.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.29 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 23.69, a week - on - week increase of 0.71 [2]