LPG早报-20250704

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The civil gas price rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, geopolitical tensions heated up, and the market was bullish. However, the overall supply was relatively abundant, and high prices were resisted by downstream users. The easing of the Middle East situation led to a sharp drop in oil prices, putting pressure on the market in the latter part of the week. [1] - The PG futures price showed a slight upward trend, with little change in the monthly spread. The latest 08 - 09 spread was 107. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East was closed. [1] - The external market price dropped significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first declined and then rose. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly, PG - CP weakened to - 4 (-33), FEI - CP weakened significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. [1] - Fundamentally, the increase in port arrivals led to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory increased slightly with regional differentiation. The PDH spot production profit improved, and the paper - based production profit increased. The alkylation oil profit increased significantly, and the MTBE output remained basically flat. [1] - Looking ahead to next week, it is expected that the operating rates of PDH and alkylation will increase slightly. The combustion demand will remain weak, but low prices will stimulate sales, and subsequent prices will generally stabilize. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Items Market Price Data - From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG changed, with daily changes of - 20, - 35, and 0 respectively on July 3 compared to the previous day. The prices of propane CFR South China and propane CIF Japan also fluctuated, with daily changes of - 5 and 3 respectively on July 3. [1] - The price of the cheapest deliverable item was East China civil gas at 4547 on July 3. [1] Weekly Market Situation - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, geopolitical tensions led to a bullish market, but overall supply was high, and high prices were resisted by downstream users. The easing of the Middle East situation led to a sharp drop in oil prices, pressuring the market later in the week. [1] - The PG futures price rose slightly, with little change in the monthly spread. The 08 - 09 spread was 107. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed. [1] - External market prices dropped significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first declined and then rose. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly, PG - CP weakened to - 4 (-33), FEI - CP weakened significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. [1] Fundamental Situation - Port inventory increased due to more arrivals, factory inventory increased slightly with regional differentiation. The PDH operating rate increased to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), the alkylation operating rate was 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and the MTBE output remained basically flat. [1] - The PDH spot production profit improved, and the paper - based production profit increased. The alkylation oil profit increased significantly. [1] - The warehouse receipt registration volume was 8358 lots (+0). [1] Forecast for Next Week - It is expected that the operating rates of PDH and alkylation will increase slightly, the combustion demand will remain weak, low prices will stimulate sales, and subsequent prices will generally stabilize. [1]