Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 0-3 month price target for gold from $3,500/oz to $3,300/oz [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The gold price has declined by over $100/oz since the downgrade, currently trading just below the target of $3,300/oz, with expectations of continued price consolidation around $3,100-$3,500/oz in Q3 [1][2] - The passing of the OBBBA and upcoming trade deals are anticipated to shift the growth narrative and reduce concerns regarding US growth, which may weigh on gold demand [2][3] - The report suggests that the gold market deficit is peaking and may have already seen its highs at $3,500/oz in late April [1][3] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Gold price reached an all-time high close of approximately $3,432/oz on June 13, 2025, but has since moderated lower due to geopolitical de-escalation and improved global growth outlook, down about 5% from the mid-June peak [2][3] - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to return to approximately $2,500-$2,700/oz by the second half of 2026, which is about 21-25% below the average forward prices for that period [3][10] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that declining investment demand from Q4 2025 could stem from improvements in global growth confidence as the stimulatory US budget takes effect and as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates towards a neutral policy [3][10] - The analysis indicates that the call on bar and coin stockholders will decline sharply in 2026, leading to a corresponding fall in prices [8][10]
花旗：黄金盘整至我们 3 个月目标价 3300 美元 盎司
2025-07-04 01:35