花旗：中国经济_PMI 稳定预示增长平稳

Investment Rating - The report indicates a steady growth outlook for the industry, with a firm policy determination to meet the GDP target despite limited urgency for immediate policy changes [1][5]. Core Insights - Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.7 in June, indicating a continued contraction for the third consecutive month, while non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, remaining in expansion [3][4]. - China's exports to the US showed signs of recovery in June, contributing to overall growth, while domestic demand, particularly in property sales, appears to be weakening [5][6]. - The report estimates real growth for 25H1 at 5.3% and anticipates only minor adjustments in monetary policy, including a 10 basis points rate cut and a 50 basis points RRR cut in 25H2E, alongside an additional RMB500 billion in quasi-fiscal stimulus [1][5]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, slightly above market expectations, but still indicates contraction [3]. - The employment subindex showed deterioration, particularly among small enterprises, which fell to an eight-month low [3][6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - Non-manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5, surpassing market expectations [4]. - The construction sector was a significant driver, with the construction PMI rebounding to 52.8, marking five consecutive months of expansion [6]. Export and Import Trends - New export orders increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, suggesting a potential recovery after significant declines in previous months [6]. - Imports rose by 0.7 percentage points to a four-month high at 47.8, indicating improved production momentum [6].