摩根士丹利：美国消费者调查_关税不确定性下消费者情绪趋稳

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has stabilized amid ongoing tariff concerns, with inflation remaining the primary concern for consumers [1][7] - The report indicates a slight decline in consumer confidence regarding the economic outlook, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% anticipating deterioration, resulting in a NET score of -10% [7][61] - Concerns over tariffs remain elevated but stable, with 39% of consumers very concerned, down from 43% in April [7][14] - The spending outlook remains stable, with 32% of consumers planning to spend more in the next month, yielding a NET of +15% [19][84] - Travel intentions are strong, with approximately 60% of consumers planning to travel in the next six months, reflecting optimism in leisure travel [117] Consumer Sentiment - Inflation is the top concern for consumers at 57%, down from 59% last month, while political concerns have risen to 43% [8][37] - Geopolitical conflict concerns increased to 31% this month from 21% last month [7][8] - Low-income consumers are more worried about paying rent/mortgage and debts, while upper-income consumers focus on investment concerns [9][42] Macro Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is slightly down, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% expecting deterioration, leading to a NET score of -10% [61][71] - The outlook for household finances remains positive, with 43% expecting improvement and a NET score of +16% [64][70] Tariff Impact - 39% of consumers report being very concerned about tariffs, with 33% planning to cut back on spending in response [14][19] - The level of concern about tariffs varies significantly by political affiliation, with 63% of liberals very concerned compared to 23% of conservatives [14][50] Spending Intentions - The short-term spending outlook is stable, with 32% of consumers expecting to spend more next month, yielding a NET of +15% [84][88] - 30% of consumers reported making a major purchase in the past three months, with 58% planning a major purchase in the next three months [97][98] Travel Intentions - Approximately 60% of consumers plan to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the most common reason [117][119]