摩根大通：全球利率、大宗商品、货币及新兴市场展望和策略

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overall positive outlook on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereign credit and maintaining a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. Core Insights - The report projects a first Fed cut in December 2025, with expectations for 2-year Treasury yields to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to reach 4.35% by year-end 2025 [11][13]. - Global oil demand is tracking year-over-year growth of 410 thousand barrels per day (kbd), but is 130 kbd lower than the forecasted expansion for June [7]. - The dollar smile phenomenon persists, indicating that the dollar's strength is contingent on the nature of events driving defensive behavior [7]. US Rates - Front-end yields have declined to 2-month lows, influenced by administration criticism of the Fed, with a healthy labor market indicated by June employment data [3][16]. - Tactical positions include entering 2-year shorts and adding steepeners in the 5s/7s sector while hedging with flatteners in the 10s/30s sector [19][21]. International Rates - Yield curves have bull steepened across most developed markets, with US rates outperforming due to a sharp drop in oil prices and dovish Fed commentary [4][47]. - Euro rates have bear steepened, driven by updated German fiscal numbers and NATO defense spending agreements [4][47]. Commodities - Jewelry demand weakness is not expected to significantly impact gold prices, although vigilance is advised for potential shifts to other metals [7]. Currencies - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD, projecting key targets for various currency pairs, including EUR/USD at 1.20-1.22 and GBP/USD at 1.42 [66][85]. - The dollar's weakening is anticipated due to moderation in US growth and supportive fiscal and monetary policies outside the US [66][71]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests staying overweight on emerging market currencies while being underweight on emerging market sovereigns, with a market weight on local rates and corporates [7]. - US policies are expected to dominate the emerging market outlook in the second half of the year, with a slower growth, no-recession base case [7].