摩根大通：年中展望_可选消费

Investment Ratings - Harvey Norman (HVN AU) is rated Overweight (OW) with a price target of A$6.50 [11][27][30] - Wesfarmers (WES AU) is rated Underweight (UW) with a price target of A$67.00 [19][30] Core Insights - Harvey Norman is expected to benefit from a recovering housing cycle, with earnings projected to turn positive in FY25 after previous declines [11][12][27] - Wesfarmers' core businesses, Bunnings and Kmart, are stable but mature, with limited growth potential and high valuation multiples already reflecting their quality [19][30] Summary by Sections Harvey Norman - The investment thesis highlights an improving outlook from a low base, with earnings declines moderating and expected sales recovery [11][27] - Key drivers include a recovering housing cycle, resilient franchisee sales momentum, and high operating leverage to sales acceleration [12][27] - Valuation remains attractive at a FY25E P/E multiple of approximately 14x, with a significant discount to broader industrials [4][27] Wesfarmers - The investment thesis indicates an Underweight rating due to high valuation multiples that do not justify current earnings growth expectations [19][30] - Key challenges include capped sales growth for Bunnings and Kmart, ongoing losses at Mt Holland in a weak lithium market, and limited organic growth opportunities [20][30] - The valuation is stretched at around 33x FY26E PER, despite recent earnings downgrades [9][30]