摩根士丹利：美国股票策略-股市走强是否合理

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the equity market for a 6-12 month horizon, indicating a positive investment rating [2][4]. Core Insights - The equity market has shown resilience since April, driven by fundamental factors rather than mere speculation [2][4]. - Earnings revisions breadth has improved significantly, rising from -25% in mid-April to -5%, suggesting strong potential for future equity returns [4][11]. - The expectation of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in the upcoming year is anticipated to provide a tailwind for equity valuations [4][31]. - The report highlights a shift in earnings growth outpacing economic growth, a reversal from previous trends [4][15]. Summary by Sections Earnings Revisions - Earnings revisions breadth has seen a V-shaped recovery, indicating a positive trend for equity prices [4][12]. - The recovery is primarily driven by upward revisions rather than a reduction in negative revisions, which historically correlates with stronger market returns [11][15]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The report anticipates the Fed will cut rates seven times next year, which is expected to positively influence equity valuations [4][31]. - Early signs suggest the equity market is already pricing in these expected cuts, which historically leads to strong performance during such cycles [4][31]. Geopolitical and Policy Dynamics - Recent geopolitical events, including a decrease in crude oil prices by 14% since June 19, have reduced risks to the business cycle [4][31]. - The potential exclusion of Section 899 from the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is seen as a positive development for foreign direct investment in the US [5][31]. Corporate Spending and Economic Indicators - Corporate leaders are moving forward with business decisions despite uncertainties, indicating a shift towards proactive management [21][24]. - Capital expenditure (capex) is on the rise, driven by AI investments and favorable tax incentives, suggesting a positive outlook for corporate earnings [24][26]. Market Performance and Sector Ratings - The report emphasizes that large-cap quality stocks, particularly the "Mag 7," are leading the market recovery, while small caps lag behind [15][21]. - Sector recommendations include an overweight rating for Financials and Industrials, while Consumer Discretionary is underweight [49].