农产品早报-20250704

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn prices will be supported to remain strong due to enterprises' strong demand, but in the long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to increased imports. For starch, short - term raw material prices support it, but long - term consumption is weak, and it's advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3]. - International factors like Brazil's sugar production situation affect the sugar market, and the domestic market follows the international trend [4]. - Cotton prices are rising due to inventory decline, but there is resistance from hedging and weak downstream demand. The price may fall if demand worsens or there are macro risks, otherwise, it will oscillate [6]. - Egg prices may have limited seasonal rebounds due to a relatively high inventory base, despite increased culling earlier [10]. - Apple prices are affected by a potential small - scale production reduction in the new season and low inventory, but consumption is in the off - season and is being squeezed by seasonal fruits [14]. - Short - term pig prices are strong, but consumer acceptance in the off - season is limited. Futures are trading on the expected seasonal rebound, and the key is the de - stocking path [14]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, the price in Changchun remained at 2260, and in Jinzhou at 2330. The price in Weifang decreased by 20, and the import profit decreased by 39. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2850 and 2950 respectively [2]. - Analysis: Short - term corn prices are supported by strong demand from enterprises, while long - term there is a risk of price decline due to increased imports. Starch prices are supported by raw material prices in the short - term but are restricted by high inventory and weak consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil decreased by 238, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 55 [4]. - Analysis: International factors such as Brazil's sugar production situation affect the sugar market, and the domestic market follows the international trend [4]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, the price of 3128 cotton increased from 14935 to 14980, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 53, and the import profit increased by 4 [6]. - Analysis: Cotton prices are rising due to inventory decline, but there is resistance from hedging and weak downstream demand. The price may fall if demand worsens or there are macro risks, otherwise, it will oscillate [6]. Eggs - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable, the basis decreased by 62, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.25 [10]. - Analysis: Egg prices may have limited seasonal rebounds due to a relatively high inventory base, despite increased culling earlier [10]. Apples - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, the spot price in Shandong remained at 8500, the national inventory decreased by 22, the inventory in Shandong decreased by 19, and the inventory in Shaanxi decreased by 20 [13][14]. - Analysis: Apple prices are affected by a potential small - scale production reduction in the new season and low inventory, but consumption is in the off - season and is being squeezed by seasonal fruits [14]. Pigs - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Jiangsu Nantong increased, and the basis increased by 70 [14]. - Analysis: Short - term pig prices are strong, but consumer acceptance in the off - season is limited. Futures are trading on the expected seasonal rebound, and the key is the de - stocking path [14].