芳烃橡胶早报-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the proximal supply decreased slightly this week, polyester开工 declined, inventory remained stable, basis weakened month - on - month, and spot processing fees dropped. PX domestic maintenance was implemented, overseas still had shutdowns, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits improved, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained. In the future, downstream profits will improve, the further compression space of TA processing fees is limited when the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the absolute price is expected to remain strong supported by PX [1]. - For MEG, the proximal domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, the开工 decreased month - on - month, Iranian plants were restarting, port inventory decreased due to less arrival and improved shipment, downstream inventory levels increased, basis weakened month - on - month, and coal - based benefits slightly shrank. In the future, as Iranian and ethane supplies do not decrease, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage with the increase of domestic开工. With the current low inventory and not - low valuation, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the proximal Zhuocheng reduced production, Jixing had maintenance, the开工 dropped to 93.8%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory slightly increased. On the demand side, the开工 of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory remained stable, finished product inventory continued to accumulate, benefits slightly improved, and staple fiber exports maintained a high growth rate. In the future, there are also production reduction plans for staple fiber, but the implementation of production reduction in the industry needs further follow - up as the inventory and benefit pressure are acceptable, and the processing fees are expected to remain weak [4]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Data: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of POY fluctuated between 67.1 - 69.1, PX CFR fluctuated between 132 - 271, PTA internal spot price fluctuated between 4890 - 7075, etc. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2509(+124) [1]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 3.6 - million - ton plant; Shandong Weilian's 2.5 - million - ton plant had maintenance; Hengli Dalian's 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted [1]. MEG - Price and Index Data: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the external price of MEG was 850, the internal price fluctuated between 4328 - 4377, the profit was between - 870 - - 837, the total load was 67.2, and the port inventory was 54.5 [4]. - Device Changes: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton single - line plant had maintenance; Anhui Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton plant restarted [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Data: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the spot price was around 6744, and the market basis was around 08 + 50. The short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit also changed during this period [4]. - Device Changes: Proximally, Zhuocheng reduced production, Jixing had maintenance, and the开工 dropped to 93.8% [4]. Natural Rubber - Price and Index Data: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and other types of rubber all changed. For example, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased from 1715 to 1705 [4]. - Key Spreads: The spreads such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber - NR09 - RU0, RU main contract - NR main contract, etc., also changed during this period [4]. Other Chemical Products - Ethylene and Pure Benzene: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast) remained at 850, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 740 to 728 [8]. - EPS, PS, ABS: The prices of EPS (East China general material), PS (semi - transparent material), and ABS (0215A) all decreased to varying degrees during this period, and the domestic profits of these products also changed [8][9].