建信期货豆粕日报-20250704

Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA area report slightly favors the market as the estimated 2025 US soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. If the harvest area is adjusted down to 82.6 million acres and the yield per unit remains at 52.5 bushels, the new US soybean production is expected to be 4.337 billion bushels, a 0.7% decrease from this year. The ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop from 350 million bushels this year to 290 million bushels, reaching a relatively balanced supply - demand state. However, the inventory report shows that the current US soybean inventory has increased year - on - year, with a higher - than - expected increase, making the overall impact of the report neutral [6]. - The market will gradually focus on US soybean weather conditions. Currently, the 66% good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than last year but still at a moderately high level. The weather forecast for the next two weeks indicates that most production areas are expected to receive above - average rainfall, which is beneficial for potential yield [6]. - In the domestic soybean meal market, there are rumors that China has started purchasing Argentine soybean meal, reducing the dependence on US soybeans in the fourth quarter. In terms of futures operations, soybean meal prices continue to be priced according to CBOT soybeans, with short - term sensitivity to weather increasing. Considering the expected increase in the cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious optimism after corrections [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 2990, the opening price was 2990, the highest price was 3021, the lowest price was 2987, the closing price was 3008, with a gain of 18 and a gain rate of 0.60%. The trading volume was 332,791, the open interest was 1,062,964, and the open interest decreased by 10,344. Similar data are provided for the soybean meal 2509 and 2511 contracts [6]. - External Market: The US soybean futures contracts rose, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The USDA area and inventory reports were released at 1 am. The estimated 2025 US soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. Different scenarios of yield per unit will lead to different supply - demand situations [6]. - Domestic Market: There are rumors that China has started purchasing Argentine soybean meal, reducing the dependence on US soybeans in the fourth quarter. Futures operations should be based on the price of CBOT soybeans, with short - term sensitivity to weather increasing. The fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious optimism after corrections [6]. 2. Industry News - USDA Export Sales Report Forecast: As of the week ending June 26, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 30 - 100 tons, with 30 - 70 tons in the 2024/25 season and 0 - 30 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 10 - 65 tons, with 10 - 40 tons in the 2024/25 season and 0 - 25 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean oil export sales are expected to decrease by 10,000 tons to an increase of 26,000 tons [7]. - Argentine Soybean Sales: As of the week ending June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. They also sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 264,400 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]