甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250704

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol and Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the direction of single - side trading is hard to determine. Due to the low valuation, it's advisable to consider long positions at low prices [2]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. In June, domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [7]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. With over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, but this can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH plants have more maintenance [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. Downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to plant commissioning and export sustainability in June, as well as macro - events. The overall profit of PVC is - 500. Current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is mediocre. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [12]. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2820 to 2470, and the import profit decreased from 400 to 45. The daily change on July 3 showed that the Jiangsu spot price increased by 5, and the盘面MTO profit decreased by 28 [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price decreased from 7250 to 7200, and the import profit decreased from - 82 to - 122. The daily change on July 3 showed that the East China LL price increased by 15, and the East China HD price decreased by 100 [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6700 to 6600. The East China PP price decreased from 7140 to 7075, and the export profit remained at - 11. The daily change on July 3 showed that the Shandong propylene price decreased by 30, and the East China PP price increased by 25 [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price Data: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2400 to 2350. The calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China increased from 4850 to 4840. The daily change on July 3 showed that the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased by 50, and the calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China increased by 10 [11][12].