Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass remain weak. With supply declining to a relatively low level and demand in the seasonal off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, leading to continuous accumulation of glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1052 yuan/ton to 1039 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 4 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton, a rise of 325.00% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1056 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [11]. Cost - side of Fundamentals - Glass production profit is at a low level, which has led to an increase in cold repairs in the industry, with the number of operating production lines and production volume dropping to historical lows. The national float glass production line has 222 operating lines, with an operating rate of 75.15%, and the daily melting volume is 15.68 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. Demand - side of Fundamentals - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 468.08 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [27][4]. Inventory - side of Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.085 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different trends. For example, in 2021, production increased by 9.88% and consumption increased by 6.87%, while in 2018, production decreased by 3.50% and consumption decreased by 2.64% [43]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to implement a production - reduction plan, which boosts the market sentiment [3]. - Negative factors: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4].
大越期货玻璃早报-20250704
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-04 03:26