大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PTA: After the sharp decline in oil prices, it returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures market fluctuated following the cost side. Although the fundamentals of PTA itself weakened month - on - month, there was no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of polyester load [6]. - MEG: At the beginning of July, the arrival of foreign ships was concentrated, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. Supply at home and abroad is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall increase of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the sales of polyester products have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has continued to increase. Bottle chip factories will gradually implement maintenance, and the polyester load will decrease. In the short term, the market sentiment will be boosted by the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants, and ethylene glycol may show a small - scale rebound, but the overall sustainability is not strong, and the fundamentals cannot form effective support [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market declined compared with the previous day. The negotiation was mainly among traders, with sporadic inquiries from polyester factories. The decline of the spot basis widened. The inventory of PTA factories was 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position increased [6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely. The buying sentiment in the market was good. The price of ethylene glycol was mainly adjusted within a certain range during the day, and the buying sentiment improved significantly in the afternoon. Some contract merchants actively replenished their stocks, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The trading in the market was active. The inventory in East China was 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract was net short, and the short position decreased [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory changes [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. 5. Price - It includes multiple price - related charts such as bottle chip spot price, bottle chip production profit, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, and spot spread, which reflect the price trends of different products over the years [14][27][30]. 6. Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of various products such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory, which reflect the inventory trends of different products over the years [40]. 7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - It includes the opening rate data of polyester upstream products (such as PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol) and downstream products (such as polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms), which reflect the production activity trends of different products over the years [51][55]. 8. Profit - It includes the profit data of various products such as PTA processing fee, MEG production profit (from different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber production profit, and polyester fiber long - filament production profit, which reflect the profit trends of different products over the years [59][62].