大越期货国债期货早报-20250704

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, while ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.02%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts rose slightly. The capital market became looser. After the cross - quarter, the capital is expected to remain loose, but it's not enough to break the current low - volatility state. The upcoming reduction in treasury bond issuance also boosts short - term market sentiment, and the bond market has upward potential [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The table shows the current prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, daily position changes, and CTD bonds of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. For example, the T2509 contract had a current price of 109.105, a price change of 0.00%, a trading volume of 64,900, an open interest of 206,020, and a daily position change of - 499 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bank main interest - rate bond yields were generally stable with a slight decline, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds were slightly weaker. The capital market became looser, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - type institutions down by over 4bp to 1.31%, and the seven - day repurchase rate down by over 3bp [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On July 3, the central bank conducted 57.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 452.1 billion yuan [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS main basis was - 0.0293, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TF main basis was 0.0001, the T main basis was 0.16671, and the TL main basis was 0.2747, all indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which were bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The TF main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The T main contract had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5] 8. Expectation Analysis - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded. In May, the financial data was reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans were significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its second - quarter regular meeting and suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The capital market remained loose [5]