建信期货原油日报-20250704

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the possible resumption of Israeli attacks on Iran, oil prices rose again. EIA data showed that as of the week ending on the 27th, US crude oil and gasoline inventories both increased more than expected, while diesel inventories continued to decline. In the supply side, most of the 8 OPEC member countries achieved the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production. In the demand side, the expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited because of the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana. The market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental-driven, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.18% to close at $67.45 per barrel, with a trading volume of 24.54 million lots; Brent crude oil futures rose 3.04% to close at $69.15 per barrel, with a trading volume of 38.45 million lots; SC crude oil futures rose 1.56% to close at 506.3 yuan per barrel, with a trading volume of 17.94 million lots [6]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: OPEC member countries basically completed the planned production increase in the first month of the expanded production increase. Trump's concerns about high oil prices may lead to a further increase in OPEC+ production. The expectation of crude oil demand has improved due to the suspension of the Sino-US tariff conflict, but the market will still maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year because of the expected supply growth in other countries [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia plans to increase its daily crude oil production to 1 million barrels. - Last week, US imports of crude oil from Nigeria reached the highest level since August 2019. - In June, the production of 12 OPEC member countries increased by 360,000 barrels per day to an average of 28 million barrels per day, with about two-thirds of the increase contributed by Saudi Arabia [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, and spot prices, with data sources including CFTC, Wind, and Bloomberg [10][11][18]