大越期货贵金属早报-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in gold prices and a pull - back in silver prices after a rise. The tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, while silver prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the global situation has become extremely volatile. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall back, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Silver prices are more affected by tariff concerns and may see an enlarged increase [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly high, cooling the interest rate cut expectation and causing gold prices to fall. The US and European stock markets rose, the US dollar index increased by 0.35% to 97.12, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 6.30 basis points to 4.242%. COMEX gold futures fell 0.71% to $3336.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The US non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly high, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Silver prices rose first and then fell. The US and European stock markets rose, the US dollar index increased by 0.35% to 97.12, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 6.30 basis points to 4.242%. COMEX silver futures rose 0.85% to $37.04 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 4.28, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price; the inventory of gold futures increased by 3 kilograms to 18456 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 20, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 2133 kilograms to 1340792 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - All - day: US financial markets are closed. - 17:00: Eurozone May PPI. - 20:15: Speech by Villeroy, member of the European Central Bank Governing Council and President of the Bank of France. - 23:00: Speech by Taylor, member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). - Next day 01:30: Speech by Taylor, member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). - Next day 04:00: US President Trump will hold a signing and celebration event for the "Great Beautiful Tax Bill" at the White House. - Sunday: Vietnam's Q2 GDP, OPEC + meeting to discuss August oil production policy, and the opening of the 2025 BRICS Summit in Brazil. - 14:00: Germany's May factory orders. - 15:30: European Central Bank President Lagarde meets with German Chancellor Merz. - 16:00: Speech by Elderson, member of the European Central Bank Executive Board [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the interest rate cut expectation; the tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. The Shanghai - gold premium has converged to 3.5 yuan per gram [4]. - Silver: The unexpectedly high US non - farm payroll data has cooled the interest rate cut expectation; the tax cut bill has also contributed to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations. The Shanghai - silver premium has converged to about 420 yuan per kilogram [5]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1456 to 200503, the short position decreased by 29 to 65235, and the net position decreased by 1427 to 135268 [27]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 29036 to 411699, the short position increased by 42443 to 338958, and the net position decreased by 13407 to 72741 [30].