大越期货油脂早报-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but international biodiesel profits are low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian canola has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in March, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,264, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,800 - 8,200 [2] Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,744, with a basis of 266, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700 [3] Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,775, with a basis of 156, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Imported soybean inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [6] - Soybean oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [7] - Soybean meal inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing: Not described in detail, only mentioned [11] - Palm oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [19] - Rapeseed inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [21] - Total domestic oils and fats inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [23] Demand - Soybean oil apparent consumption: Not described in detail, only mentioned [13] - Soybean meal apparent consumption: Not described in detail, only mentioned [15]