焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-4）-20250704

Report Summary Core Views - Coking Coal: The downstream coking and steel enterprises are in the replenishment cycle, which supports the raw coal price. However, due to limited profit margins, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited, and the purchasing is cautious. The coking coal price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - Coke: The steel mills' procurement demand is continuously released, leading to a rapid decline in coking enterprises' inventory. With restricted production capacity in the main producing areas and low inventory at all levels, the supply - demand pattern of coke is tightening. The rising raw coal price also supports the coke price, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Positive Factors: Rising pig iron output and limited supply increase [4]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Positive Factors: Rising pig iron output and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [9]. Data Summary Inventory - Coking Coal: Port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; independent coking enterprises' inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons; steel mills' inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons [2][19][22][25]. - Coke: Port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week; independent coking enterprises' inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons; steel mills' inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons [19][22][25]. Other Data - Coking Enterprises' Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74%, the same as last week [36]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].