大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250704

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Department: Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - Analyst: Jin Zebin Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the cease - fire in the Middle East leading to a decline in crude oil prices, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and ongoing production capacity pressure, despite cost support [4]. - The PP market is also expected to show a fluctuating trend, with similar influencing factors including weak downstream demand and the impact of the cease - fire on crude oil prices [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. After the cease - fire in the Middle East, crude oil prices fell. The agricultural film is in the off - season, downstream demand for packaging film is weak, and there is still pressure from new production capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (+50), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 4, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.1%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 500,000 tons (- 5000), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish sentiment [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. LLDPE Factors - Bullish Factors: Cost support [6] - Bearish Factors: New production capacity release and weak demand [6] - Main Logic: The game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7250 (- 0), with overall bearish fundamentals [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 176, and the premium/discount ratio is 2.5%, showing a bullish signal [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 570,000 tons (- 15,000), considered neutral [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish sentiment [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] PP Factors - Bullish Factors: Cost support [9] - Bearish Factors: Weak demand [9] - Main Logic: The game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7280 (+50), the 09 - contract price is 7284 (- 4), the basis is - 4, and the comprehensive PE inventory is 500,000 tons (- 5000) [4][10] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 7250 (- 0), the 09 - contract price is 7074 (+2), the basis is 176, and the comprehensive PP inventory is 570,000 tons (- 15,000) [7][10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17]