摩根士丹利：G10 外汇策略-我们的最新观点

Investment Ratings - USD: Bearish [2][12][17] - EUR: Bullish [3][18][19] - JPY: Bullish [4][20][21] - GBP: Neutral [5][22] - CHF: Neutral [6][23] - CAD: Neutral [7][24] - AUD: Neutral [8][25] - NZD: Neutral [9][13] - SEK: Neutral [14][24] - NOK: Neutral [16][24] Core Insights - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the USD, driven by technical factors and expectations of weak growth alongside sticky inflation [2][12][17] - A bullish sentiment is maintained for the EUR, supported by technical momentum and FX hedging, with a significant amount of European holdings in US assets being unhedged [3][19] - The JPY is expected to outperform due to lower US terminal rate pricing and uncertainty regarding tariffs, which may enhance its appeal as a safe haven [4][20][21] - The GBP is viewed neutrally, with potential upside risks depending on local rate movements and fiscal concerns [5][22] - The CHF outlook remains neutral but with a bullish skew, contingent on inflation trends [6][23] - The CAD is expected to face downward pressure due to a bearish outlook on North American growth [7][24] - The AUD's direction is contingent on the RBA's upcoming rate decisions, with a potential rate cut anticipated [8][25] - The NZD outlook is neutral, with risks tied to RBNZ rate decisions [9][13] - The SEK and NOK are both viewed neutrally, with bearish skews due to economic data and oil price pressures [14][16][24] Summary by Currency - USD: Bearish due to technical forces and inflation concerns [2][12][17] - EUR: Bullish with strong technical support and FX hedging [3][19] - JPY: Bullish, benefiting from US data softness and tariff uncertainties [4][20][21] - GBP: Neutral with bullish risks based on rate movements [5][22] - CHF: Neutral but bullish skew based on inflation data [6][23] - CAD: Neutral with bearish risks from economic outlook [7][24] - AUD: Neutral with bullish risks depending on RBA decisions [8][25] - NZD: Neutral with downside risks from RBNZ [9][13] - SEK: Neutral with bearish risks from retail sales data [14][24] - NOK: Neutral with bearish risks from oil prices [16][24]