摩根士丹利：中国股票策略 -A 股情绪随关税关键日期临近而降温

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - A-share investor sentiment has decreased, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) dropping by 16 percentage points to 71% and the simple MSASI falling by 17 percentage points to 57% compared to the previous cutoff date [2] - Average daily turnover for ChiNext and A-shares increased by 13% and 15% respectively, while turnover for equity futures and Northbound trading decreased by 23% and 3% [2] - Southbound trading saw net inflows of US$2.4 billion from June 26 to July 2, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching US$93.8 billion and US$0.6 billion respectively [3] - The Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs discussed structural rebalancing of China's growth model, focusing on fiscal system reform, realigning macro targets, and revamping performance evaluations, but no specific timeline or enforcement mechanism was provided [4] - Property data indicates that home prices in major cities experienced a softer decline of 1.0% month-on-month in June, with total listings increasing by 0.7% month-on-month, which may impact home sales and prices in the second half of the year [5] Summary by Sections A-Share Market Sentiment - The weighted MSASI is currently at 71%, indicating a decline in investor sentiment [6] - The average daily turnover for A-shares has shown an increase, suggesting some market activity despite the sentiment drop [2] Fund Flows - Southbound trading has recorded significant net inflows, indicating continued interest from international investors [3] Economic Policy and Structural Changes - The recent meeting of the Central Commission highlighted the need for structural reforms in the economy, although no concrete plans were announced [4] Real Estate Market Trends - Home prices in major cities are declining at a slower rate, but the increase in listings could pressure future sales and prices [5]