摩根士丹利：清洁技术-和解法案已获国会通过 -这意味着什么？

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "In-Line" [8]. Core Insights - The reconciliation bill passed by Congress is viewed as better than expected for most subsectors within the renewables space, removing a major overhang for the industry [2][3]. - Incremental buying is recommended for companies such as NEE, AES, BE, and FSLR due to the supportive provisions of the legislation [2]. - Strong industry growth is anticipated at least until 2028, with leading developers expected to continue strong growth and gain market share into 2030 [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Large Scale Renewables - Full tax credits are available through mid-2030 for projects that started construction previously and for those starting through mid-2026 [3]. - The final version of the bill is slightly worse than initial expectations, but storage provisions remain favorable [3]. Manufacturing - Manufacturing tax credits remain unchanged, providing relief for FSLR [4]. Battery Storage - Tax credits for battery storage are significantly better than expected, available through 2033 before phasing down, positively impacting FLNC, NEE, and AES [4]. Residential Solar - The outcome for residential solar is challenging but better than bearish expectations for RUN, while ENPH and SEDG face more difficulties [5]. Fuel Cells - A new 30% tax credit for fuel cells through 2033 is a positive development for BE, enhancing the economic attractiveness of its products [6]. Nuclear - The nuclear sector remains neutral, with no significant changes for CEG, TLN, VST, and PEG [6]. Hydrogen - Clean hydrogen tax credits are better than expected, with elimination pushed to 2028, which is later than initially anticipated, providing modest positivity for PLUG [11]. Clean Fuel Production - Clean fuel production credits are extended through 2029, benefiting companies like DTE Energy and Dominion [20]. Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) Regulations - New restrictions on tax credits for projects involving prohibited foreign entities will begin in 2026, impacting eligibility based on material assistance thresholds [21][22]. Stock Ratings - Specific company ratings include Overweight for Bloom Energy Corp. (BE), First Solar Inc. (FSLR), and GE Vernova (GEV), while companies like Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) and Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) are rated Underweight [74].