摩根士丹利：台积电-新税收抵免有助于美国晶圆厂长期盈利；增持

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on TSMC, which is also highlighted as a Top Pick [5]. Core Insights - New tax credits for semiconductor firms building capacity in the US are set to increase from 25% to 35%, benefiting companies like TSMC [1]. - TSMC's commitment to invest in its US fab is expected to enhance its chances of receiving exemptions from semiconductor tariffs, thereby reducing profit burdens associated with US capacity expansion [1]. - The forecast for TSMC's 3Q25 revenue growth is approximately 3% quarter-over-quarter in USD terms, which is lower than the typical seasonal growth of 6-7% [2]. - Despite the short-term revenue growth forecast, TSMC is expected to raise its full-year USD revenue guidance from mid-20% to high-20% due to strong demand in AI [2]. - TSMC's 2026 CoWoS capacity expansion is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for the global AI supply chain [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Guidance - TSMC's 3Q25 revenue guidance is projected at NT$910 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter decline of 1.6% and a year-over-year increase of 35.1% [3]. - Gross margin (GM) is expected to drop by 1.5 percentage points to 55.8% due to the TWD's appreciation against the USD [2][3]. Financial Metrics - TSMC's price target is set at NT$1,288.00, indicating an 18% upside from the current price of NT$1,090.00 [5]. - The market capitalization of TSMC is currently NT$28,261,469 million, with an average daily trading value of NT$42,730 million [5]. - Projected EPS for TSMC is NT$45.25 for FY24, NT$55.01 for FY25, and NT$64.61 for FY26 [5].