大越期货生猪期货早报-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the pig market this week may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of live pigs may experience a double - reduction in pigs and meat this week after the May Day holiday. The demand is also affected by the post - holiday decline in consumer enthusiasm. The market is expected to be in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to an oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the group farms' slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market at the end of the month [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures follow a similar pattern [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live pig spot prices [11]. - Bearish Factors: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - side Data: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - Price Data: The national average spot price is 15,370 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 1,000 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8].