大越期货菜粕早报-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 fluctuates in the range of 2600 - 2660. It is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, low oil - mill开机 rates, and low inventory. The short - term spot demand is in the peak season, and the import of Canadian rapeseed increases, but the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited. In the short term, it may return to range - bound trading [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot supply and rising demand [11]. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has a slight decrease, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has a slight decrease this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which may support commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish - China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes [12]. - Oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory pressure is not large [12]. Bearish - Domestic rapeseed was listed in June [13]. - The result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [13]. Current Main Logic - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading Data Comparison: The report provides the trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from June 24 to July 3, including transaction average prices, trading volumes, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [14]. - Rapeseed Meal Price Summary: It shows the prices of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509, far - month contract 2601) and spot prices (in Fujian) from June 25 to July 3 [16]. - Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipts: It presents the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts and their changes from June 23 to July 3 [17]. - Domestic Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2014 to 2023, it includes data such as harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25]. - Domestic Rapeseed Meal Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2014 to 2023, it contains data such as initial inventory, production, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [26]. - Price and Production: The import volume of rapeseed in July is lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost. Oil - mill rapeseed inventory continues to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory has dropped to a low level. The oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume has a slight decrease. Aquatic fish prices have a slight increase, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [27][29][31][39]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal fluctuates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in the short - term peak season, and although the import of rapeseed increases, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure, with a short - term slightly bullish trend. The impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes may be limited [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 81, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 11000 tons, up 8.91% week - on - week from 10100 tons last week, and down 65.63% year - on - year from 32000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market Chart: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main Position: The main long positions increase, but the funds flow out, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: In the short term, rapeseed meal may rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price may return to range - bound trading [9].