原油成品油早报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the geopolitical risk premium related to the Middle East tension fading, oil prices dropped significantly this week. The market is shifting its focus to OPEC+'s production policy and Trump's decision on reciprocal tariffs, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week. Fundamentally, global oil products were de-stocked in late June, with the de-stocking slope slightly exceeding expectations. The US commercial crude oil inventory reached the lowest level in the same period in history. The WTI fundamentals are positive, while domestic refinery profits rebounded. However, OPEC+ is preparing to significantly increase production again in August, and the expected acceleration of non-OPEC production in the fourth quarter limits the upside space of absolute prices. A positive spread trading strategy is recommended for the price difference, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on absolute prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From June 27 to July 3, WTI decreased by $0.45, BRENT decreased by $0.31, and DUBAI decreased by $0.35. SC increased by 8.10 yuan, and OMAN decreased by $1.16. Japanese naphtha CFR and Singapore fuel oil 380CST also showed certain price changes [3] 3.2 News - Trump's "Big and Beautiful Bill" ends long - term support for solar and wind energy, creates a friendly environment for oil, gas, and coal production, and gradually cancels tax credits for clean power investment and production in wind and solar energy [3] - OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 41.1 barrels per day, and the decision will be further discussed at the online meeting this weekend [4] - Iran's deputy foreign minister said that Iran does not intend to stop uranium enrichment activities and will not take further retaliatory actions against the US [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 0.2 million barrels, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.845 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.239 million barrels. The average supply of US crude oil products in four weeks decreased by 1.12% year - on - year [4][5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries recovered [5]