大越期货豆粕早报-20250704

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, lacking new guidance in the short - term. It awaits the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean market is narrowly fluctuating, affected by the US soybean trend and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans. The domestic soybean market is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybean arrivals [8][10]. - The domestic soybean meal market is oscillating and rebounding, influenced by the US soybean market and technical oscillations. The increase in imported soybean arrivals in June and the weak spot price suppress the upward space of the futures price. In the short - term, it returns to the range - bound pattern [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term China - US tariff negotiations are favorable for US soybeans, but the relatively good planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas has led to a short - term decline in the US soybean futures price. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has also rebounded from a low level in June. The soybean and soybean meal markets have declined in the short - term due to the decline in the US soybean market [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. Coupled with the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern [12]. - The low - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will maintain short - term oscillations, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures price, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppress the soybean price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From June 24 to July 3, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From June 25 to July 3, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was at a discount to the futures price [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From June 23 to July 3, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed. The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased significantly on June 27 [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in the soybean meal market increased, but the funds flowed out [8]. - The main short positions in the soybean market decreased, and the funds flowed out [10].