Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed an oscillating rebound with sector rotation. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, but the basis discount widened. Considering the improvement in the macro situation and the index breaking through the upper limit of the short-term oscillation range, there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of chasing high prices [2][3]. - The government bond futures market was narrowly oscillating, with most varieties slightly rising. Given the loose capital situation, the overall sentiment of bond futures is strong, but there is a lack of momentum to break through previous highs in the short term [5][6]. - The precious metals market saw a divergence in the trends of gold and silver. The strong resilience of the labor market reduced the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in July. The "Big and Beautiful" bill may stimulate economic growth, and the US dollar index showed signs of stopping its decline and rebounding [8][9]. - The container shipping futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term before the August quotes are released [11][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term; alumina is expected to be weakly oscillating; aluminum is expected to be in a wide - range high - level oscillation; zinc is expected to be oscillating in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term; tin is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be oscillating within a certain range; and lithium carbonate is expected to be oscillating in the short term [13][18][23][26][30][32][35][36]. - In the ferrous metals market, steel prices are strengthening due to better - than - expected off - season demand and improved market sentiment; iron ore is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term; coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating, with suggestions for hedging and speculative trading [40][43][44][48]. - In the agricultural products market, soybean meal is in the process of bottom - grinding in the short term; the spot price of live pigs is oscillating strongly; corn is oscillating narrowly, and the price is expected to rise in the medium term; sugar is expected to be bearish after a rebound [50][54][57][59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Thursday, the major A - share indexes rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, but the basis discount widened [2][3]. - News: The June Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index declined. Overseas, Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, and the US lifted restrictions on the export of chip design software to China [3]. - Capital: On July 3, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Be vigilant about the risk of chasing high prices. Consider lightly shorting MO options with an exercise price of 5900 in August - September [4]. Government Bond Futures - Market Performance: Government bond futures closed mostly higher. The 30 - year contract fell 0.02%, the 10 - year contract was flat, the 5 - year contract rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year contract rose 0.01%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan. The capital situation is loose, but there may be disturbances in July [5][6]. - Operation Suggestion: In the short term, consider appropriately allocating long positions on dips and taking profits when approaching previous highs. Pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Consider positive arbitrage strategies and steepening the yield curve [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed. Gold prices fell, while silver prices rose [8][9]. - Future Outlook: Gold is expected to rise in the long term, with short - term price oscillations between $3300 - $3400. Silver is expected to oscillate between $36 - $37 in the short term. Consider selling out - of - the - money gold options [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures (EC) - Spot Quotes: As of July 4, the quotes of major shipping companies are provided. - Index: As of June 30, the SCFIS European line index rose 10% month - on - month, and the US West line index fell 22% [11]. - Fundamentals: As of July 1, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US are provided [11]. - Logic: The futures market rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. - Operation Suggestion: The EC08 main contract is expected to oscillate between 1800 - 2000 [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of July 3, copper prices were high, suppressing downstream demand [13]. - Macro: The COMEX - LME spread widened. The market underestimated the possibility of tariffs, and copper prices are unlikely to weaken before the end of the US copper restocking [13]. - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate is low, and the supply is tight. In June, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased slightly, and it is expected to increase in July [14][15]. - Demand: The short - term domestic demand is resilient, but the "rush to export" demand may overdraw future demand [15]. - Inventory: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - Logic: The macro environment and fundamentals support copper prices. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 80000 - 82000 [17]. Alumina - Spot: As of July 3, the prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - Supply: In June, the domestic alumina production increased, and the operating capacity recovered [17]. - Inventory: As of July 3, the port inventory increased [18]. - Logic: The price rose due to news from Guinea, but the fundamentals remain unchanged, with a slight oversupply. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [18]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2750 - 3100. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [18]. Aluminum - Spot: As of July 3, the price increased, and the premium decreased [18]. - Supply: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased slightly. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline in July [19][20]. - Demand: Downstream industries are in the off - season, and the开工 rates of various sectors are decreasing [20]. - Inventory: The domestic inventory is increasing slightly, and the LME inventory is unchanged [20]. - Logic: The market is oscillating at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upside [21]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 20000 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: As of July 3, the prices remained unchanged [21]. - Supply: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The industry is in the off - season, and the decline in June is expected to be limited [22]. - Demand: In May, the demand was weak, and the order volume decreased at home and abroad [22]. - Inventory: As of July 3, the social inventory increased [22]. - Logic: It is expected to be weakly oscillating, mainly paying attention to the supply of scrap aluminum and import changes [23]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - Spot: As of July 3, the price increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was weak [23]. - Supply: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose. In June, the domestic refined zinc production increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July [24][25]. - Demand: The premium showed different trends in different regions. The开工 rates of primary processing industries decreased, and the demand is expected to remain weak [25]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory is accumulating, and the LME inventory is slightly decreasing [26]. - Logic: The supply of zinc ore is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillating in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term [26]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - Spot: As of July 3, the price remained unchanged, and the downstream demand was weak [26]. - Supply: In May, the domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports increased, mainly from African countries [27]. - Demand and Inventory: In May, the solder paste开工 rate decreased. As of July 3, the LME inventory decreased, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [28]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term and bearish based on inventory and import data [29][30]. - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. Consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data [30]. Nickel - Spot: As of July 3, the price increased [30]. - Supply: In June, the refined nickel production decreased slightly, and it is expected to increase in July [30]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [31]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic social inventory is slightly decreasing [31]. - Logic: The macro environment drives the price up, but the industrial overcapacity restricts the upside. It is expected to be oscillating in the short term [32]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 118000 - 124000 [32]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of July 3, the price remained unchanged [33]. - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron is weak [33][35]. - Supply: In June, the domestic stainless steel production decreased slightly, and the 300 - series production increased slightly [33][34]. - Inventory: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [34]. - Logic: The macro environment improves the trading sentiment, but the fundamentals remain under pressure. It is expected to be oscillating in the short term [35]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 12500 - 13000 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of July 3, the price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [36]. - Supply: In June, the production increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July. The weekly production decreased slightly [37]. - Demand: The demand is stable, but it is difficult to increase significantly in the off - season [37][39]. - Inventory: The inventory is at a high level and is accumulating [38][39]. - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to be oscillating between 60,000 - 65,000 [39][40]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 60,000 - 65,000 [40]. Financial Derivatives - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price followed the futures price, and the basis of rebar strengthened while that of hot - rolled coil weakened [40]. - Supply: The production decreased slightly from the high level, with a more significant decline in rebar [40]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products remained stable at a high level, and the inventory was low [41]. - View: Steel prices are strengthening due to better - than - expected off - season demand and improved market sentiment. The hot - rolled coil main contract is expected to oscillate between 3150 - 3300, and the rebar is expected to oscillate between 3050 - 3150 [41]. Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [42]. - Futures: The iron ore futures rose [42]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties is provided [42]. - Demand: The daily pig iron production decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [42]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the arrival volume at ports decreased [42][43]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [43]. - View: It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term. Consider going long on dips, with the range of 700 - 750 [43]. Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The futures price rose, and the spot price was strong [44]. - Supply: The production of coking coal is expected to increase, and the import situation is complex [45][47]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly, but the downstream replenishment increased [45][46][47]. - Inventory: The overall inventory is at a medium level [46]. - View: Consider hedging the 2601 contract on rallies, and going long on dips for the 2509 contract or conducting long coking coal - short coke arbitrage [47]. Coke - Futures and Spot: The futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The fourth price cut was implemented [48][49]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke is negative in most regions [48]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [49]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking plants decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [49]. - View: Consider hedging the 2601 contract on rallies, and going long on dips for the 2509 contract or conducting long coking coal - short coke arbitrage [49]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: The price of soybean meal increased in some regions, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume was zero [50][51]. - Fundamentals: The US Senate's new tax bill is beneficial to US soybean and corn growers. The export sales of US soybeans are expected to increase [51][52]. - Outlook: The US soybean price has strengthened support, and the domestic soybean meal is in the process of bottom - grinding in the short term [53]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price is oscillating strongly [54]. - Market Data: The breeding profit has increased, the secondary fattening inventory has increased, and the average slaughter weight has increased [54][55]. - Outlook: The short - term sentiment is strong, but there is pressure above the 09 contract [56]. Corn - Spot Price: The prices in different regions are stable [57]. - Fundamentals: The inventory data in different regions and sectors are provided, and the import auction is ongoing [57][58]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be stable in the short term, with support in the medium term. Pay attention to the policy auction [58]. Sugar - Analysis: The international raw sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the domestic price is oscillating at the bottom. The domestic market is expected to be bullish in the short term and bearish after the rebound [59]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in Brazil increased, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season [59][60].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250704
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-04 06:41