Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead futures was active, with a weekly increase of 0.99%. The market trading was active. Affected by overseas de - stocking, the weakening dollar, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. The overall amplitude was good. After the market rose with the short - term positive fermentation, there were signs of a decline on Friday. The price was still under the annual - line suppression, and the market continued to rise for two consecutive weeks, showing a good long - term trend [5]. - In terms of supply, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The supply of recycled lead raw materials increased slightly, and the profit increased slightly with the rising lead price. The overall operating rate and supply of recycled lead increased, but it was difficult to reverse the raw material bottleneck in the short term, and the supply increase was limited. In terms of demand, the overall market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again, while domestic inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipts increased, mainly due to the obvious price difference between the domestic and overseas markets, resulting in an arbitrage space. The lead concentrate processing fee began to decline, which would have a negative impact on the subsequent production of recycled lead and primary lead. In general, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. Affected by the marginal decline of national subsidies for consumption, domestic inventory will increase slightly, and overseas inventory will decline again. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the demand for economic stimulus is obvious, and lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term [5]. - It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate mainly, with a fluctuation range of 16,900 - 17,600 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market trend: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2508 rose 0.99%, and the market trading was active. Affected by overseas de - stocking, the weakening dollar, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, the price fluctuated upward. After rising with the short - term positive fermentation, there were signs of a decline on Friday. The price was still under the annual - line suppression, showing a good long - term trend [5]. - Market outlook: Supply is expected to increase slightly next week. Due to the marginal decline of national subsidies for consumption, domestic inventory will increase slightly, and overseas inventory will decline again. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the demand for economic stimulus is obvious, and lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term [5]. - Operation suggestions: The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuates mainly, with a fluctuation range of 16,900 - 17,600 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price comparison: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead increased compared with last week, and the overseas futures price also increased, while the ratio decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $2,058.5 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 17,295 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.40 [7][11]. - Premium and discount: The domestic futures premium and discount weakened, and the overseas premium and discount also weakened. As of July 4, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 270 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $26.47 per ton [13][15]. - Inventory situation: Overseas lead inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 53,100 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 265,900 tons, a decrease of 7,525 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 46,439 tons, an increase of 1,161 tons [28][32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply side - Primary lead: The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. As of June 26, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 76.8%, an increase of 2.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with last week [18][20]. - Supply side - Recycled lead: The capacity utilization rate and output of recycled lead enterprises decreased. The main reason was the decrease in waste lead recycling. Currently in the off - season, there were fewer scrap batteries, resulting in passive production cuts. As of June 26, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major producing areas was 17,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 36.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65% [24][27]. - Supply side - Number of enterprises: As of May 31, 2025, the total number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, remaining unchanged [34][36]. - Supply side - Import and export: The export of refined lead was obvious, and the import of refined lead increased significantly. The overseas lead ingot price was higher than the domestic price, and the domestic processing fee was low, resulting in an arbitrage space. In May, the export volume of refined lead was 5,555 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.9% and a year - on - year increase of 118.41%; the total import volume of Chinese lead ingots (crude lead + refined lead) was 11,830 tons, a month - on - month increase of 580 tons, an increase of 5.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 6,020 tons, an increase of 103.51%. The import volume of refined lead was 4,410.959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.82% and a year - on - year increase of 3058.56%. Among them, the import from Kazakhstan was 3,620.889 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.25%; the import from the Philippines was 402.789 tons, a month - on - month increase of 294.78%. The import volume of crude lead was 7,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons, an increase of 13.80%, and a year - on - year increase of 1,760 tons, an increase of 31.16% [38][40]. - Demand side - Processing fee: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat, and the import processing fee also remained flat. The low processing fee led to an arbitrage space, and the market began to import lead for processing and then export it. As of June 27, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was 640 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $40 per thousand tons [42][44]. - Demand side - Automobile production and sales: Automobile production and sales showed a marginal decline. In May 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%; the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. For passenger cars, the production was 2.313 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%; the sales volume was 2.352 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. For commercial vehicles, the production was 336,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; the sales volume was 335,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. For new energy vehicles, the production was 1.27 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 35%; the sales volume was 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total new - vehicle sales. The automobile export was 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, the new - energy vehicle export was 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [46][48]. - Demand side - Battery and charging piles: The battery price remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,082,800. As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [50][53].
沪铅市场周报：美国法案获得通过，沪铅宏观迎来利好-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-04 09:05