工业硅多晶硅市场周报：反内卷拉台期价，双硅未有重大反转-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell 0.62%, initially rising due to spot price increases but then dropping as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose 6.59% driven by anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but declined later as market sentiment faded [6]. - For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose as southwest electricity prices drop and northwest regions offer subsidies. Demand from downstream sectors like organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is operating at reduced capacity, and demand is under pressure due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry and high inventory levels. However, the release of a photovoltaic sand - control plan has improved market sentiment [6]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800, and the polysilicon main contract oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon prices initially rose due to spot price increases but fell as producers hedged; polysilicon prices rose due to anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry but declined later [6]. - Market Outlook: Industrial silicon supply will be loose, and demand from downstream sectors is weakening. Polysilicon supply is at reduced capacity, demand is under pressure, and inventory is high, but market sentiment has improved [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Industrial silicon main contract should oscillate between 7600 - 8600 with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800; polysilicon main contract should oscillate between 33500 - 37500 with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 38000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices increased, strengthening the basis; polysilicon futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the basis converged [7][12][16]. - Specific Data: As of July 4, 2025, the industrial silicon spot price was 8760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 765 yuan/ton; the polysilicon spot price was 32.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2531 yuan/g [14][20]. - Supply Data: As of July 4, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 76,100 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 52.41% [23]. 3. Industry Situation - Cost: This week, industrial silicon raw material prices slightly declined, electricity prices dropped, and overall costs continued to fall during the wet season [26]. - Inventory: This week, industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, but overall inventory continued to decline [31]. - Downstream Organic Silicon: Output and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, and production continued, but future costs are expected to rise and output to decrease [37][43]. - Downstream Aluminum Alloy: Spot prices declined, inventory increased, and passive de - stocking continued, with little demand for industrial silicon expected [49]. - Silicon Wafer and Cell: Prices continued to decline, dragging down polysilicon demand and thus industrial silicon demand [56]. - Polysilicon Cost and Output: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, industrial silicon prices fell, overall production costs were stable, and polysilicon output is expected to gradually decline [63].