瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the exception of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The performance of the four stock index futures was differentiated, and large - cap blue - chip stocks were stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for band - trading opportunities after clear policy signals. For commodities, the index is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For foreign exchange, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. - The improvement in trade relations and domestic policies on reducing over - capacity are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The euro is viewed with an oscillatory outlook due to short - term tariff uncertainties [6]. - The US employment market shows signs of slowing actual momentum, and the outcome of tariff negotiations is a key variable for the market. The eurozone economy has positive signs but may face short - term callback pressure, while the Japanese yen may be supported [10]. - China's manufacturing industry is moderately recovering, with the service industry driving the overall economic prosperity. There is still room for subsequent economic recovery [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.54%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 1.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, and the four stock index futures showed differentiated performance. The market was driven by the release of June PMI data on Monday and the news of the relaxation of Sino - US economic and trade restrictions on Friday afternoon. Market trading activity declined slightly compared with last week. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03% this week, with a change of - 0.04BP. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%. The short - term Treasury bond futures were weak, and the long - term ones were strong. Given the current weak economic recovery and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 0.36%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.84%. The improvement in trade relations and domestic over - capacity reduction policies are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.56%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.62%. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The eurozone inflation is cooling, and the economy is expected to be boosted, but it still faces short - term tariff uncertainties. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - Domestic News: The Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to study issues such as the in - depth promotion of the national unified market and high - quality development of the marine economy. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee reviewed the "Regulations on the Work of the Party Central Committee's Decision - Making and Coordination Institutions". Three departments issued tax - incentive policies for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued all the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project lists for this year [14]. - International News: Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The International Settlement Bank warned that US inflation may return. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade - agreement negotiations [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: In June, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, and the composite PMI was 50.7. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan this week [6][11][19]. - US: In June, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, the ADP employment number was - 33,000, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 147,000 [17]. - EU: In June, the eurozone manufacturing PMI final value was 49.5, the CPI annual rate initial value was 2%, and the May unemployment rate was 6.3% [17]. - Other Countries: The UK's Q1 GDP annual rate final value was 1.3%, Germany's June CPI monthly rate initial value was 0, and France's June manufacturing PMI final value was 48.1 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include Germany's May seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate, the eurozone's May retail sales monthly rate, Japan's May trade balance, China's June CPI and PPI annual rates, and the US's May wholesale sales monthly rate, among others [84].