沪锡市场周报：宏观利好需求淡季，预计锡价宽幅调整-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased significantly. Fundamentally, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain, and Thailand has restricted the import of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, raw material shortages and cost pressures coexist in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry, the operating rate of some producers has decreased, and the electronics industry has entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have increased slightly, but overseas inventories continue to decline [4]. - Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark, with the 10 - day moving average providing support [4]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly this week, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomic factors include strong US employment data and a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamental factors involve supply uncertainties from Myanmar and Congo, and weak demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries. Technically, positions are stable, and attention should be paid to the 270,000 yuan mark [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Premium: This week, the futures price fluctuated, and the spot premium was lowered. As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 266,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,560 yuan/ton or 0.58% from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,805 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton or 0.01% from June 27 [7]. - Ratio Changes: As of July 4, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.19, an increase of 0.05 from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.94, an increase of 0.03 from June 26 [14]. - Position Changes: As of July 4, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 55,224 lots, a decrease of 4,270 lots or 7.18% from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -1,309 lots, a decrease of 5,196 lots from June 23 [15][16]. 3.3 Industry Chain 3.3.1 Supply Side - Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin production was -0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of -0.01%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative refined tin production was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [21][22]. - Tin Ore Processing Fee: On July 4, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 13.33% from June 27. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 8.7% from June 27 [25]. - Refined Tin Import Window: As of July 4, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was -6,588 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,725.45 yuan/ton from June 27. In May 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - Inventory Changes: As of July 3, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,165 tons, an increase of 50 tons or 2.36% from June 26. As of July 4, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons or 3.49% from last week. As of July 4, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 6,807 tons, an increase of 256 tons or 3.91% from June 27 [38]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: From January to May 2025, the integrated circuit production was 193.46 billion pieces, an increase of 23.18 billion pieces or 13.61% compared with the same period last year [41]. - Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. As of May 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [46].