白糖市场周报：外盘扰动，短期波动加剧-20250704

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report - External Disturbances, Short - term Volatility Intensifies [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Internationally, the approaching monsoon season improved the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, the opening of the import window increased import pressure, while the summer consumption peak provided some support. Overall, the domestic sugar price was stronger than the external market due to rising demand. In the later period, both supply and demand will be strong, and price volatility will intensify. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the export of Brazilian and Indian sugar [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Market Analysis: The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the monsoon season improved the supply outlook in Asia, and Brazilian shipping data showed an increase in waiting ships and sugar quantity. Domestically, import pressure increased, but summer consumption provided support. The domestic market was stronger than the external market, and later, price volatility will intensify [5] - Trading Strategy: Temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract [5] - Future Focus: Consumption situation, Brazilian and Indian sugar exports [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.92% this week. As of July 2, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar was unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.76%. The international raw sugar spot price decreased by 1.38% as of June 27, 2025. The top 20 net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 29,497 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 23,424 [12][15][21] - Spot Market: As of July 4, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,150 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,880 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,318 yuan/ton (down 0.55% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota was 5,480 yuan/ton (down 0.56% week - on - week). The in - quota profit of importing Brazilian sugar was 1,617 yuan/ton (up 0.87% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota profit was 455 yuan/ton (up 4.84% week - on - week). Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [25][28][34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, with a national sugar production of 1.11621 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons (12.03% increase). As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% surge year - on - year, but the cumulative import from January to May was 630,000 tons, a 50.1% decrease year - on - year [38][42][46] - Demand Side: The cumulative national sugar sales were 811,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons (23.07% increase), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 906,600 tons (a 4.9% year - on - year increase), and the cumulative output of soft drinks was 7.46 billion tons (a 25.19% year - on - year increase) [50][55] 3.4 Option and Stock - related Market - Option Market: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of sugar this week was presented, but specific data was not fully described [56] - Stock Market: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but specific data was not fully described [60]